September's Circana numbers say the US market is just waiting for GTA 6

When a market's most important month hasn't happened yet, what exactly are we reading in the September charts? Not a verdict. A waiting room.

The headline is easy to summarize. According to Circana's September 2026 US figures, VGChartz notes that the PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console in the US and outsold Switch 2, which fell 14 percent. That sounds calm, and we'd add that the good news is mostly a matter of who is standing where while everyone waits.

The podium is real, but it was built on price tags

Look at how fast the leaderboard has swung this year. Per Tech Insider's recap of Circana data, PS5 led in January, Switch 2 took over by May after PS5 unit sales dropped 58% following price increases, and PS5 was back in front for the four-week period ending October 3. That isn't a trend. It's a pendulum, and the thing swinging it is mostly what the boxes cost.

Consider what Circana said about July: hardware spending fell 29% to $282 million, unit sales fell 39%, and the average selling price jumped 16% to $542. Circana itself pointed to the RAM and component crisis, and to the Switch 2 price hike to $499.99 that took effect September 1. In our view, "PS5 is No. 1" says less about Sony's momentum than about the fact that every platform holder has made the entry ticket more expensive, and shoppers are choosing which expensive box to sit out the wait with.

Switch 2's drop in September also deserves a sober reading, not a panic. A price increase landed in the very month in question, and the console is still in its first year on the market. A console can lose some ground and still be healthy. But it does mean the "Nintendo carries the industry" story has gone quiet at precisely the wrong time.

The surface is stable because the comparison math is doing the work

Zoom out and the picture looks oddly calm. Through the first half of the year, total US spending was $27.5 billion, only 1% behind last year's pace, even though June alone fell 21% against the Switch 2 launch. Subscriptions were the one category growing in both June and July. That's reassuring, and also a little uncomfortable: the healthiest line item is the one where people pay for access, not the one where they buy new things.

Meanwhile, software is not exactly roaring. July's physical software dollars hit an all-time July low of $85 million in tracking going back to 1995. Hardware spending in July was the weakest for that month since 2020. A market in which the top console spot swings with price increases, and where new-game spending is thin, is not stable. It is idling.

One unreleased game is carrying the whole forecast

Here's the part that should make executives nervous. In February, Circana projected 2026 US spending would rise 3% to $62.8 billion, a new record, and it named unprecedented anticipation for Grand Theft Auto VI as a key driver. It described the game as launching in November, said it holds the highest purchase intent ever recorded in its tracking history, and said it could lift hardware, accessories and subscriptions.

That's a lot of weight on a single release. With H1 spending running 1% behind, a record year isn't a given; it needs a big finish. Our reading, and it is only that, is that many shoppers and retailers are timing purchases around that one date. Circana's own consumer research suggests why a cost-sensitive consumer matters: when asked about potential cost increases from tariffs and/or other factors, 38% said they would buy fewer full-price games at launch and 34% would wait longer for sales. If prices stay high, even a monster hit might not lift the whole market the way the forecast hopes.

We should be careful here. These are forecasts, and we don't have November's results. A great launch could make September look like a trivial pause. But the fragility is structural: the industry has chosen to depend on one event, while hardware gets pricier.

Our verdict

Read September as a snapshot, not a trend. If you're a reader trying to decide what to buy, the charts won't help much; PS5's win reflects shifting prices more than a clear verdict on the platforms. If you're following the industry, watch November and December, not for GTA's own sales alone, but for whether the surrounding market, hardware, accessories and other releases, rises with it. If it doesn't, the "stable" market we're seeing now was an illusion produced by anticipation.