GTA 6 hasn't launched yet, and Sony is already the winner of the season

What does it say about a console when it sells more after almost six years on the market than it did a year earlier, and it hasn't even had its big game yet? That is the PS5's situation, and we think it is the most revealing data point of the fall.

According to Circana figures reported by VGChartz, the PS5 was the best-selling console in the US in September 2026, in both units and dollars. Its unit sales rose 22% year over year, while Switch 2 fell 14% and Xbox Series X|S dropped 27%. Hardware dollars on PS5 jumped 43%, and Sony's dollar share hit its highest monthly level since May 2025. The same report says the Xbox ecosystem had its worst September in history.

The GTA 6 effect is real, but it isn't the whole story

The tempting reading is simple: Grand Theft Auto VI arrives on November 19 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, people are buying a console to be ready, and Sony is cashing in. There is something to that. Newzoo, as Vandal reports, expects GTA 6 to help accelerate adoption of both PS5 and Xbox Series, and says it had roughly $180 million in digital preorders in its first week across six major markets.

But notice who benefits. GTA 6 is launching on both Sony and Microsoft hardware, and only one of them is growing. That suggests the game alone doesn't explain it. We think Sony is also benefiting from a strong first-party September: Marvel's Wolverine debuted in first place, and Circana said it had the highest launch-month full-game dollar sales for a Sony-published title since Helldivers II in February 2024. A big first-party hero game plus the biggest game of the decade on the horizon is a very good sales pitch for the same box.

Xbox is the real alarm bell

The Xbox number is the one we would be losing sleep over. A 27% drop in a month when the entire industry was pointing at one blockbuster that also runs on Xbox suggests the problem isn't a lack of reasons to buy. It looks more like a lack of desire. Prices may well play a role, but if prices alone explained it, we doubt PS5 would be up.

Our opinion: Microsoft has spent years teaching its audience that the box is optional. When the most anticipated launch in years shows up, that audience seems to buy the box that comes with the exclusives and the identity. That isn't a verdict on any single decision; it is the cumulative cost of a strategy.

Nintendo's dip is more forgivable, and more temporary

Switch 2 falling 14% in a month where it still finished second deserves nuance. It is a younger machine with its own release rhythm, and we wouldn't call this a crisis. Nintendo doesn't need GTA 6; it needs its own calendar to deliver.

Don't confuse a good month with a healthy market

Before handing Sony the trophy for good, a caveat. Total US hardware unit sales fell 3% in September, and year to date, hardware dollars are down 9% and overall spending is down 3%. A strong PS5 is winning a smaller pie. Hardware dollars did grow 12% in the month, which is good news, but one month doesn't undo a rough year.

There is also a timing risk. Sony is probably riding a spike driven by anticipation, and anticipation ends on November 19. What matters is whether those new owners keep buying games after the one they bought the console for. We think that is where the real test lies.

Our verdict

Sony is the clear winner of the pre-launch season, and the reason is a combination of a marquee first-party lineup, a rival event that happens to favor it, and rivals who couldn't offer a counter-argument. Xbox should worry most, because its slump is happening in what should be very favorable market conditions. Nintendo should watch, but not panic.

If you are on the fence about a PS5, our advice is practical: buy it for the whole calendar, not for one game. And if you are a competitor, stop blaming prices and the GTA 6 shadow. September showed that someone can still win in this market.